Boise State vs. Hawaii: A Saturday Night Showdown in CFB
As the college football season heats up, an intriguing matchup is on the horizon: the No. 17 Boise State Broncos are set to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in a late-night battle on October 12, 2024. With a kickoff scheduled for 11 p.m. ET at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, this game promises excitement, notable odds, and plenty of action.
Heavy Favorites: The Odds Speak Volumes
The Broncos enter the game as heavy favorites, opening as 20.5-point favorites against the Rainbow Warriors. The odds reflect Boise State’s strong season—currently standing at 4-1 with their sole loss coming by just three points at Oregon. The team has dominated their games, winning by an average margin of nearly 27 points.
Hawaii’s record reflects a tougher experience this season at 2-3, with all victories against FCS opponents. Their odds show a significant uphill battle, as they are +900 on the moneyline, indicating just a 10% implied probability of an upset. With the over/under set at 59.5 points, fans can expect an engaging clash that showcases Boise’s explosive offense against Hawaii’s resolute defense.
The Broncos’ Dominance
At the heart of Boise State’s success is running back Ashton Jeanty, who has been nothing short of extraordinary this season. Leading the nation in rushing yards (1,031), touchdowns (16), and averaging an astounding 10.8 yards per carry, Jeanty’s performance has drawn comparisons to legends of the game, like Barry Sanders. He’s so impactful that his prop bets reflect his prowess, showing his TD scoring average skewed heavily in his favor during game odds.
Supporting Jeanty is quarterback Maddux Madsen, who, while not needing to shoulder the entire offensive burden, has been effective when called upon. Madsen’s impressive stats (85 completions out of 135 attempts for 1,056 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions) indicate a solid track record, though he struggled against Oregon when Jeanty was sidelined.
However, there’s a caveat: Boise’s defense has had its struggles. Ranked low in various defensive metrics, including 114th in EPA/play allowed, there are legitimate questions about how they will fare against a competitive Hawaii offense if Jeanty has an off day.
The Rainbow Warriors: A Competitive Edge
Despite holding a 2-3 record, Hawaii’s team has demonstrated resilience and competitive spirit, with close games against UCLA and San Diego State. Their defense, particularly effective in the front seven, ranks impressively 12th in Success Rate and 10th in EPA/play allowed. This solid foundation has been pivotal for head coach Timmy Chang’s squad.
Offensively, Hawaii’s success hinges largely on the arm of quarterback Brayden Schager. With respectable numbers that indicate potential for big plays (1,328 yards, 11 touchdowns, and six interceptions), Schager has shown promise despite issues with dropped passes, having the highest drop rate in the nation. Nevertheless, the Rainbow Warriors rank in the upper half of the league in finishing drives, which could present challenges for a Boise defense struggling in that category.
Game Prediction: Expect the Unpredictable
For bettors and fans alike, this matchup presents various intriguing angles. Given Boise State’s propensity to dominate, many expect a victory for the Broncos. However, the spread of +21 in favor of Hawaii is appealing for those who believe in their capacity to stay competitive, especially when considering their recent prowess against the spread in conference games.
With both teams showcasing strengths—Boise’s star-studded offensive star Jeanty and Hawaii’s surprising defensive tenacity—the stage is set for a thrilling encounter. Analyses suggest that while Boise State has clearer paths to victory, there’s a realistic opportunity for Hawaii to keep things competitive and perhaps even surprise.
In the end, the prediction leans towards a Boise State victory, likely in the realm of 45-27, but not without a fight from the Warriors. Play the spread wisely, and keep an eye on team performances as kickoff approaches for what could be a defining game of the season.